David Freedman, 'Wrong' Author, on Why to Not Trust Experts

To read the factoids David Freedman rattles off in his book Wrong is terrifying. He begins by writing that about two-thirds of the findings published in the top medical journals are refuted within a few years. It gets worse. As much as 90% of physicians' medical knowledge has been found to be substantially or completely wrong. In fact, there is a 1 in 12 chance that a doctor's diagnosis will be so wrong that it causes the patient significant harm. And it's not just medicine. Economists have found that all studies published in economics journals are likely to be wrong. Professionally prepared tax returns are more likely to contain significant errors than self-prepared returns. Half of all newspaper articles contain at least one factual error. So why, then, do we blindly follow experts? Freedman has an idea, which he elaborates on in his book Wrong: Why Experts Keep Failing Us - and How to Know When Not to Trust Them. Freedman talked to TIME about why we believe experts, how to find good advice and why we should trust him - even though he's kind of an expert. (See the top 10 everything of 2009.)

You say that many experts are wrong, yet you quote many experts in your book. Are these experts wrong too?
They very well may be, but these are people who study expertise. They know how other experts go wrong because this is what they study, so maybe they're better at avoiding some of these problems. Maybe they're a little more careful with their data and they work a little harder to not mislead people. That's just a suggestion. I mean, who knows? But that's the best I can do to defend myself here.

In Wrong you write about the "Wizard of Oz" effect. Basically, from a young age we're taught to think that someone else always knows best. First our parents, then our teachers, and so on.
The fact of the matter is, unless you're the smartest person in the world, there is someone out there who knows more than you do. So it's not that we want to discard expertise - that would be reckless and dangerous. The key becomes, how do we learn to distinguish between expertise that's more likely to be right and expertise that's less likely to be right?

And how do we go about that?
It would be nice if we could look at the experts' track record and look at all their pronouncements to see what percentage were right. But we can't do that, so you have to play a sort of statistics game here and ask the question, "What does better advice have in common?" so we can look for those features. Or, conversely, "What does bad advice have in common?" so we can avoid it.

What have you learned about bad advice?
Bad advice tends to be simplistic. It tends to be definite, universal and certain. But, of course, that's the advice we love to hear. The best advice tends to be less certain - those researchers who say, 'I think maybe this is true in certain situations for some people.' We should avoid the kind of advice that tends to resonate the most - it's exciting, it's a breakthrough, it's going to solve your problems - and instead look at the advice that embraces complexity and uncertainty.

But it's not really natural to take less-certain studies and advice seriously, is it?
You're exactly right, and that's part of the problem. It goes against our intuition, but we have to learn to force ourselves to accept, understand and even embrace that we live in a complex, very messy, very uncertain world. Therefore, the experts who are more likely to steer us in the right direction are the ones who acknowledge that. It probably would be helpful if all study reports came with a little warning label like cigarette packs that simply spelled out generically that, by the way, experts are usually wrong. (Comment on this story.)

You say brain scans show that when presented with expert advice, we actually lose our ability to make our own decisions.
Yes. Now, let me point out, I always feel a little funny when I quote the results of a brain-scan study or even quote the findings of any study because, of course, my book is all about pointing out the problems with studies. But for what it's worth, people have actually looked at this question of what happens to brain activity when people are given expert advice, and sure enough, you see that the brain activity dies out in a way that suggests the person is thinking for themselves less. The brain actually shuts down a bit in the face of expert advice. When we hear an expert, we surrender our own judgment.

So we essentially just blindly follow experts?
That's exactly what it is. And there are certain experts who, not only is their advice very resonant, but they themselves are very resonant. Some experts project tremendous confidence. They have marvelous credentials. They can be very charismatic - sometimes their voice just projects it. Some experts get very, very good at this stuff. And what do you know? It really sort of lulls us into accepting what they say. It can take a while to actually think about it and realize their advice makes no sense at all.

You found some cases of experts who willingly discarded data that didn't fit with the conclusion they were after?
That is a huge understatement - it is almost routine. Now, let me point out that it's not always nefarious. Scientists and experts have to do a certain amount of data sorting. Some data turns out to be garbage, some just isn't useful, or it just doesn't help you answer the question, so scientists always have to edit their data, and that's O.K. The problem is, how can we make sure that when they're editing the data, they're not simply manipulating the data in the way that helps them end up with the data they want? Unfortunately, there really aren't any safeguards in place against that. Scientists and other experts are human beings, they want to advance their careers, they have families to support, and what do you know, they tend to get the answers they chase.

So you're saying, if I set out to prove that wine is good for you, I can find the data to back up that claim?
You can. We see that all the time. In fact, we're seeing it constantly. There are studies that come out that say obesity is actually good for you and those that say exercise doesn't do you any good. If there's a certain answer that you want, for example, an exciting research finding that's going to get published in a research journal, then you will probably find some way to achieve it.

You say that some advice is good and even critically important. So how do we go about picking out the good from the bad? It seems like finding a needle in a haystack.
It is a needle in a haystack. Part of the problem is, we're kind of lazy about it. We would like to believe that experts have the answer for us. And what we pay the most attention to are the most recent, most exciting findings. Newspapers, magazines, TV and the Internet oblige us by constantly reporting the stuff. We face this sea of advice all the time. So where is that needle in the haystack? I think the best thing to do is to discount as much as possible the more recent findings and pay more attention to the findings that have been floating around for some years. With a little bit of work, I think most of us can figure out how to answer some of these basic questions about whether advice seems to be pointing in the right direction or whether it seems to be falling apart.

What about studies that involve animal testing and take what they study on animals and apply it to humans? Is that really an effective way to determine what we should eat or what cancer treatments will work?
There are some things we just can't study on humans because it would be incredibly unethical. Of course, it's a much debated question of whether it's ethical to study on animals too, but putting that question aside, clearly it can really help science move forward to do animal research. However, the fact of the matter is, the majority of animal research does not translate well to human beings, and in spite of the fact that scientists love to point out that we share anywhere from 90% to 99% of our genes with different types of mammals, we know we're really different than mice and we're even really different than apes. Again and again and again we see that drugs and behavior and almost anything you want to look at in animals turns out to not apply well to human beings. So, yes, it advances basic science to ask these questions, but does it result in good advice for us? In general, the answer is no.

O.K., this question has to be asked. You're kind of an expert of experts, so should we not trust you either?
Yes, you should not trust me either. I mean, how could I possibly claim that I have some foothold on the truth that these other people I'm talking about don't have? I don't. Of course, I'm biased. I want a nice sexy story. How boring would it be for me to come out and be like, "You know, those experts, they're pretty good, they're right a lot of the time." We wouldn't even be having this conversation if I said that. There are all kinds of reasons why I might fudge the data myself or mislead people about this. But I'm not trying to give people answers here. What I am trying to do is provoke thinking, raise awareness and point out that there are real questions here that we all should be asking. We should all try to be smarter about how we pick our advice. How could I possibly be wrong about that?

By KAYLA WEBLEY.

A Possible Russian Spy Profile Quote:

If you can imagine it, you can achieve it; if you can dream it, you can become it.

Хүний тархинд нэн ээлтэй хоол хүнсүүд

1. Амуу тариа
Амуу тариа тархинд очих цусны хэмжээг ихэсгэдэг. Ингэснээр тархи бүрэн чадлаар ажиллах боломжтой болдог. Тариа нь B6, В1 витамин агуулдаг бөгөөд В1 ийг ой санамжаа сайжруулах зорилгоор хүмүүс уудаг билээ.

2. Өндөг
Хүн хөгширөөд ирэхээр тархи хатингаршиж эхэлдэг. Гэсэн ч байнгын өндөг идсэнээр бид өөрсдийгөө сэргийлж чадах юм гэнэ. Өндөг В12, био лецитин агуулдаг тул тархи хатингаршихаас хамгаалдаг юм байна. Түүний хажуугаар бас ой санамжинд сайнаар нөлөөлнө. Гэхдээ хэт ихээр идэх нь бас сөрөг нөлөөг үзүүлж болно. Өдөрт 1-2 ийг идэхэд хангалттай.

3. Хясаа
Далайн хоол хүнсэнд чухал хэрэгтэй зүйлс агуулагддаг гэдэг. Тэгвэл хясааны хувьд хүний тархинд үнэхээр чухал нөлөөтэй гэнэ. Цинк, төмрийн агууламж нь оюун ухаан сэргэг, хурц байхад туслах хийгээд мэдээллийг тунгаах, шүүх чадвар нэмэгддэг аж. Харин цинк, төмрийн дутагдалд орвол ой санамж муудаж, төвлөрөх чадваргүй болдог.

4. Цай, тэр дундаа ногоон цай
Та өглөө босоод кофе уудаг уу? Тэгвэл оронд нь нэг аяга цай ууж бай. Заримдаа таны залхуу хүрч, ядраад ч байгаа юм шиг, юм бодохоос хүртэл дургүй хүрэх үе байдаг уу? Тэгвэл танд цайнд агуулагддаг катецин гэгч бодис дутагдсан хэрэг.

5. Жимс
Аньс хүний сурах, цээжлэх чадварыг дээшлүүлдэг. Ер нь нэрс, аньс зэрэг жимснүүд тархины эрүүл мэндэд сайн гэнэ. Харин эдгээр жимснээс нэгийг өдөрт идсэнээр тархи хөгширөхөөс сэргийлж чадна.

6. Карри
Карриг Энэтхэгчүүд хоолондоо ихээр хэрэглэдэг шүү дээ. Карри нь тархи сэргэг байлгахад тусалдаг бөгөөд антиоксидантаар баялаг тул хөгширөх, бүтцийн ажиллагааны доголдолоос хамгаална. Карри нь зөвхөн хүний тархинд сайнаар нөлөөлөх бус зүрхний өвчин, диабетаас хамгаална.

7. Ногоон навчит ногоонууд
Байцаа, навчин байцаа, бууцай зэрэг нь хүний тархинд онцгой сайн. Эдгээр ногоо нь таны өнгөрсөн ой санамжийг сэргээхэд тусалдаг. В6, В12 агуулдаг тул мартамхай болохоос сэргийлнэ. Түүнчлэн төмрийн өндөр агууламжтай.

8. Самар, үр
Хүний тархинд хэрэгтэй амттан, амны зугаа гаргах зүйл бий юу? Байна. Энэ бол самар, үр. Эдгээр нь Omega-3, omega-6, витамин Е, витамин В6 р баялаг. Харин бүгд таныг эрүүл саруулаар сэтгэхэд тусална. Тэд таныг эерэг бодол санааг өвөртлөхөд тань тусалж бас чадах юм. Omega-3, omega-6 нь сэтгэл гутралын эсрэг үйчилгээтэй байдаг.

9. Загас
Загас нь Omega-3 н өндөр агууламжтай байдаг. Долоо хоногт 1 загас идэх нь таныг ой санамж муудах өвчинөөс хамгаалах болно. Түүнчлэн тархинд хүчил төрөгч ихээр очих нөхцлийг бүрдүүлдэг тул шинэ мэдээлэл авах, сурахад амар дөхөм болно.
Загас дундаа туна загас тархинд илүү ашиг тустай.

10. Шоколад
Шоколанданд агуулагдах антиоксидантын хэмжээ нь ногоон цайны агууламжаас илүү байдаг аж. Түүнээс гадна тархинд очих цусны хангамжийг нэмэгдүүлдэг.

Seven powerful lessons from the Alchemist

1. Dreams get the juices flowing

It’s the possibility of having a dream come true that makes life interesting.

It’s not the dream come true that makes life interesting, it’s the possibility of it happening. The journey is as important as the destination, however without a destination (your dream) the journey is without direction and loses its meaning. So dream that dream, and pursue it.

2. You knew what you wanted when you were young

It (destiny) is what you have always wanted to accomplish. Everyone, when they are young, knows what their destiny is. At that point in their lives, everything is clear and everything is possible. They are not afraid to dream, and to yearn for everything they would like to see happen to them in their lives. But, as time passes, a mysterious force begins to convince them that it will be impossible for them to realize their destiny.

This had me thinking, can I remember the time in my life where everything was clear and everything was possible? Not really. I do remember wanting to be fighter jet pilot, astronaut or archeologist. They don’t seem to have much in common, but what I found appealing in these professions was pushing borders. The borders of speed and power, and of space and time. I was always interested in professions that proved that borders can be pushed, that there was more to achieve than we thought. I still have this fascination, but my focus is on human potential now.
Think about what you wanted to be as a kid, what was your dream?

3. Pursue your dreams, the universe will help

Whoever you are, or whatever it is that you do, when you really want something, it’s because that desire originated in the soul of the universe. It’s your mission on earth. And when you want something, all the universe conspires in helping you to achieve it.

There are a lot of names and explanations for this phenomenon, but they main thing is that it’s so true. If you have a dream and really want to achieve it, look at the world with an open mind and you will recognize all the signs and all the people that will help you along the way. You can call it the Law of Attraction, or destiny, or the power of visualization, or synchronicity, or whatever. Share your dream with the world and focus on realizing it, and you will get help.

4. Pursue your dreams, don’t fear failure

Only one thing makes a dream impossible: the fear of failure.

People are afraid to pursue their most important dreams, because they feel that they don’t deserve them, or that they’ll be unable to achieve them.

Two quotes for this lesson. Don’t fear failure, expect success. Fearing failure will do two things:

* It will prevent you from taking action, and without action you’re not moving
* It will increase the likelihood of failure happening (as you so actively visualize it)

Reframing failure might also work, I like this saying about failure: “It’s not falling that we call failure, it’s neglecting to get up again.”

5. Make decisions and learn from the journey

Making a decision was only the beginning of things. When someone makes a decision, he is really diving into a strong current that will carry him to places he had never dreamed of when he first made the decision.

“There is only one way to learn,” the alchemist answered. “It’s through action. Everything you need to know you have learned through your journey.

Making a decision and committing to action are not results, they are the start of something powerful. They set forth a chain of events, a strong current, that take you further on your journey. Enjoy that journey as it will take you place you did not expect, but they provide you with lessons to learn that you need to realize your dream.

6. Love makes us better

When we love, we always strive to become better than we are. When we strive to become better than we are, everything around us becomes better too.

Love never keeps a man from pursuing his destiny.

Love will not get in the way of realizing your dream. If you let love be the reason for giving up on your dreams, you subconsciously will blame love for it later in your life. You’ll look at the one you love with an underlying feeling of remorse, which in turn will sabotage your love. If we love we strive to be become better than we are, better as a partner, as a parent or as a person. The love will only deepen when we allow ourselves and others to pursue their dreams and love them for the journey they take.

7. You never lose control

“What’s the world’s greatest lie?” the boy asked, completely surprised. “It’s this: that at a certain point in our lives, we lose control of what’s happening to us, and our lives become controlled by fate. That’s the world’s greatest lie.”

This one is so important. You never lose control! There are always decisions to make, always actions to take. There may be stages in our journey in life that will be difficult and that need perseverance. Stay in touch with that dream, and never ever give in to the feeling that you can’t do it. You are in control!

6 Shocking Job-Search Facts

1. Most resumes submitted through company websites don't get read.
The biggest problem with the "spray and pray" approach to job hunting is that most resumes thrust into the Black Hole (that is, official job-search channels such as a company's website) don't get read. Even in organizations that search electronically for keywords, too many candidates have the right words on their resumes, and there aren't enough HR screeners to review all the resumes that pass the first screen. That's why you're better off networking your way into an interview, or reaching the hiring manager directly, than trying to be found in the Black Hole.

2. Most screeners have zero understanding of the job.
If you've spent time on either side of the hiring equation, you already know that most of the clerical screeners who separate resumes into "Let's Interview" and "No Thanks" piles have almost no experience with the function they're screening for. That's why your best bet is to avoid the screener altogether by reaching the hiring manager via LinkedIn, snail mail, email, telephone, or an intermediate connection (you'll likely find him or her on LinkedIn, too). You know what the job is about, so talk about what's important in the role--not the endless list of posted job requirements.

3. Most of the stated job requirements aren't required.
Employers dream up job-spec requirements the way little kids pad their holiday-gift wish lists. Most of the formal job requirements given for a job are not essential. Don't be deterred from applying for a job because you miss a few of the "must-have" bullets listed on the job ad. In most cases, if you can solve the pain the employer is facing, a missing certification here or a slightly different degree there won't amount to a hill of beans.

4. Most job ads that say "Salary History Required" are fibbing.
An employer wants to know that your salary requirement is not completely out of the company's hiring range. You need to give them a salary target, either in your cover letter or in your resume. They don't need to know every salary you've ever in your life. If you're filling out a web form that forces you to input a salary for every job you've held since high school, put your current salary target in the "salary" field every time. Then, at your first opportunity (an open comment box, for instance), say something like "All salary figures reported in this form are my current salary target."

5. Most managers don't want to ask all those interview questions.
If you think the interview is grueling and tedious for you, imagine it from the hiring manager's side--and then imagine the conversation repeated eight or ten times! Most hiring managers don't relish the idea of interrogating candidates about their backgrounds. Go into the job interview ready to talk about what the job requires, and what you've already done that's similar. That's the key. Don't sit passively and wait for the next question--join in the conversation with a question or two of your own: "So, I'd imagine that here at Acme Dynamite, a good knowledge of roadrunner behavior is pretty important--is that your view, also?" (Though this active approach works well with hiring managers, it doesn't work as well with HR screeners.)

6. Most of the hiring decision is "fit."
Don't pretend to be shocked! I'll bet you always knew that most of the hiring decisions at most companies focus on "fit" rather than textbook qualifications. How can you improve your "fit" for the hiring manager's sake? I wouldn't bother. Be yourself. The right employers will love what you bring, and the ones who don't love your persona wouldn't appreciate your gifts if you did get the job. Keep putting irons in the fire, and go to every interview you're invited to (if the job is too far from your house or the people in the company seem evil or crazy, you can always back out later). Fit is a two-way street, anyway. If the folks at a given employer don't get you, save your talents for somebody that does.

By Liz Ryan.

4 simple steps to meeting someone

Step #1: Smile and wave
Don’t be afraid to use gestures that say, “I’d like to chat with you” — whether that means a smile, a nod, a wave or just eyebrows raised in expectation. Laura Lewis, 27, from River Falls, WI, recently spent much of her lunch hour in a long line at a bank. But instead of getting annoyed, she got a number from the cute guy standing behind her. “We were checking each other out the whole time we stood there,” she explains, “and just as I finished at the teller, I gave him a big, big smile. He gave me a cute little ‘hi there’ wave, so I busied myself rearranging my wallet until he was free to talk.”
How to practice it: Even though it may seem bold, smiling at strangers is the top way to let them know it’s safe to break through. Try it on everyone and anyone: the bored workers at the post office, a harried mother in front of you at the checkout aisle, or even the toddler sitting in her cart. As you get used to being a smiler, you’ll start doing it naturally — including at the people you most want to meet.

Step #2: Be the one who speaks first
Anyone can talk back to someone, but real people-meeters know the trick is starting a chat out of the blue. Susan RoAne, author of How to Create Your Own Luck and What Do I Say Next?, says the secret lies in seeing the world around you as full of opportunities to talk versus waiting to be addressed by someone else.
How to do it: In order to break the ice with people you want to date, it helps to start with people you’d normally never speak to — say, the married guy in another department at work or a grandma at the bus stop. Since you’re not worried about whether they’ll shoot you down, you can truly be yourself and get used to talking to perfect strangers. “You have to get comfortable doing it, or you’ll hesitate when you see someone in particular who you want to talk to,” says RoAne. “If you have to think about what to say or feel self-conscious, you’ll hesitate and the moment will be gone.”

Step #3: Work your chit-chat charm
OK, what the heck should you talk about? The experts advise finding something that you two share — that could easily be something in your environment, like the weather or the huge new billboard that went up across the street. Or it could be something in the world around you, like a big verdict that was announced on the news earlier in the day or the fact that the next day is officially the longest day of the year.
How to practice it: Work on having an opinion or asking for the other person’s view of things rather than just throwing a remark out there. So if you’re in the cereal aisle, don’t mutter to yourself, “Wow, expensive...” Turn to the object of your affection and say, “Wow, can you believe it? Almost six dollars for this! Is it just this brand or are they all so pricey?” Similarly, if you’re in line for lunch and the folks behind the deli counter are taking their time, don’t just say, “Gee, this line is moving so slowly.” Instead, try to get some playful banter going by saying, “I’ll bet you a little bag of chips that we’re not out of here by 1 p.m.” The idea is to open the door to a chat rather than just tossing out an observation.

Step #4: Then... stop talking!
Bill Keith, 29, from Hudson, OH, has a knack for charming everyone around him. He says his secret is knowing when to stop yapping and start listening. “People aren’t used to having other people really listen to them, so that’s how I win a lot of people over,” he says. So whether he’s remarking about an old Madonna song that just came on the supermarket muzak (which is how he met his best friend) or asking someone at Starbucks which shaker has cocoa and which has cinnamon and whether really makes a difference, Keith opens the door to a chat and then shuts his mouth. His new acquaintance walks away feeling connected since Keith lavished on some personal attention.
How to practice it: Next time you start a conversation, make an effort to ask the person you’re chatting with at least three questions before making another observation of your own. That will get you in the groove of letting the other person open up to you... and it shows your level of appreciation for what someone else has to say. And when people feel appreciated, chances are, they’ll want to continue that conversation.
By Laura Gilbert.

Чойномын шүлгийн хэсгээс...

Яаж ч чи гоёж гангаллаа гэсэн
Яс угсаагаа далдартал гоёод хэрэггvй
Ямар ч ном олон хэл сурлаа гэвч
Яруу сайхан Монгол хэлээ мартаж болохгvй !

Энэ хэлээр аав чинь
Эхнийхээ шvлгийг хэлхсэн юм.
Энэ л хэлээр аав чинь
Эцсийнхээ шvлгийг хэлхэх болно.


Энэ хэлээр дуулж, энэ хэлээр уйлж
Энэ хэлээр онож, энэ хэлээр алдаж
Эцэг чинь єєрийнхєє хєшєєг єєрєє
Эл Монгол хэлээр босгосон юм шvv !

Азийн цээжин дээр Монгол гэдэг
Аугаа нэрийг сэлмээрээ сийлсэн
Тал шиг сэтгэлтэй уул шиг хvмvvсийн
Тасархай нь гэдгээ мартаж болохгvй !

Амаржих газрын хаалганы завсраар
Амрыг нь асууж ээжийг чинь уяраасан
Анхны бvvвэйг манцуй дээр чинь
Аялан дуулсан энэ хэлийг чи

Гарцаагvй сайн сурах ёстой.
-Чойном.